Every time the news cycle triggers a certain type of travel story, it happens. My messages light up from friends and family as they question my travel risk tolerance.
“You need to change your plans”.
Aviation disaster, a global conflict, or the latest outbreak of a food-borne illness – it is always the same.
I should be grateful that I have so many people in my life who care. The proximity of my travels to a region can easily spook some. Some view the majority of my travel as “unsafe”. And some, I believe, need a reason to be in contact.
But in all of these, I hear a question that frequent travelers ask.
“What is MY level of risk tolerance”?
Those who engage in risk management assessment professionally know that it’s important to have an assessment model to gauge risks.
There is risk in everything – getting out of bed in the morning and walking into the kitchen carries a certain degree of hazard.
- Will you slip and fall on your way there?
- Will there be an intruder in the kitchen waiting to bludgeon you?
- Will you burn your mouth with your first cup of hot coffee?
As humans, we are programmed to think about the risks. Ignore all of them, and you may be at a greater risk of harm. Avoid all of them, and you will likely live a timid life.
Can I get from Point A to Point B safely and promptly?
That is always the question at the top of my mind. But there are other factors at play as well in any decision. That personal model multiplies when it comes to travel, as more variables are beyond personal control. And yet every travel plan requires some personal assessment of risk tolerance.
For me, these are the major considerations when I consider my overall travel plans:
Timing
Does my travel plan allow me sufficient cushion should I encounter unusual circumstances? If I have back-to-back trips, is there a backup plan to combine them (and am I prepared to move seamlessly between them)? I try never to take the last possible flight to my intended destination, for example. I’d rather have one or two flights later in the day that work as a safety plan should there be irregular operations. I don’t always get that luxury, particularly when taking weekend trips, but it’s a nice cushion when I do.
Financial
Do I have appropriate backup resources in case I have unforeseen issues? Sufficient cash or credit limit, for example, if I have an unplanned overnight. Available credit to purchase a new ticket, should I need to. I’ve run into unexpected delays due to weather, flight operations, and terrorism that have kept me up to three additional unplanned nights away from home so I’m always anticipating that possibility.
Geopolitical
Are there regional concerns that affect my travel? If so, are there factors within my own control that I can manage? Avoiding large crowds in a politically tense region, for example, is a strategy I’ve employed when visiting volatile areas during deadly protests.
Are there certain regions where travel might best be avoided for a time period? I have a list of countries I’d prefer not to travel to, given the current political climate. I regularly monitor diplomatic websites such as the United States State Department Travel Advisories for general guidance. But I also rely on my own travel plans to determine whether I am likely to encounter noted risks.
Safety
Am I taking safe means of transport? I’ve had some questionable car and boat rides in some countries where I have definitely put my physical well-being at risk!
Am I following appropriate travel safety protocols when out in public? I look at the suppliers I choose to do business with to see if they have a history of ignoring guest safety. I follow local norms (conservative clothing choices, for example). I also try to stay aware of my surroundings, noting exit paths and potential hazards.
I am relatively risk-averse in my personal life, but I don’t stop flying after plane crashes. Cruise line incidents have not deterred me from sailing. Geopolitical and terrorism concerns have not kept me from visiting places like Indonesia, Turkey, and Russia in the past. But I’ll still have to keep my own risk management model in mind. I carry an annual travel insurance policy, and I am prepared to make decisions before and during travel.
What factors do YOU consider when evaluating travel risk tolerance?
My risk tolerance is probably a fair bit different than most. As long as the airport remains open, I am probably willing to fly into there. I try to keep a low profile when on the ground (living in places like downtown Atlanta and Mogadishu through the years have taught me well) and very rarely find myself in any truly life threatening situations as a result.
You could get hit by a car crossing the street in your home town, and the likelihood of that is probably more than being shot down by flying over Ukraine.
Your risk tolerance has – historically – been higher than mine. Then again, it was YOU and not me who almost ended up on one of the 9/11 flights. DPS-KUL-HKG doesn’t fly near Russia/Ukraine so I’m at least safe there….
I dunno – I understand the idea that flying is more safe than driving, etc. etc. but it still would give me pause if I had flights flying over Ukraine any time soon…. I’m nervous enough about our upcoming family trip and we’re staying in the US!!! 🙂
It’s always a risk. I am more nervous sometimes about short hop domestic stuff than international travel.
hello fellow p2b blogger,
the timeliness of your article is applicable to me as well. My rtw ticket I purchased when American Airlines still allowed explorer awards takes me to finland then tel aviv next week. Everyone is saying cancel the final portion but I certainly will not.
Besides not believing that there is a serious threat, I can’t rationalize giving up finnair business class from HEL to TLV and 2 free nights at the radisson blu tel aviv.
Idiocy, risk loving, or points obsessed? You decide.
I’d have a hard time giving up my last OW Explorer (if I’d been lucky enough to get one more in before they went away!) – I’d do it, but that’s just me. I’m more nervous about MH going under before December than anything else. I talked to AA today and unfortunately nothing else is open to move to (and my cruise is already booked). They did say that if something happened to MH that they’d have more flexibility to accommodate me, whatever that means.
I was just about to hit the 220k mark again after my second citi exec, then i got the stupid news that they got rid of the award. So you are lucky to have booked it and are crafty, for lack of a better word, to be able to construct such a trip twice.
If MH does go away, then who knows about the routes and the schedules and the rules etc. And of course, I’m going!!